Markets closed early today for Good Friday. Good timing, actually — it gives us all a moment to breathe, look around, and think without the noise of tickers screaming at us.
Let me tell you what I see.
The situation, briefly
Since late February, the US-Israeli strikes on Iran and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz have triggered the largest oil supply disruption in modern history. Brent briefly crossed $105. European gas prices nearly doubled. The ECB paused its rate-cutting cycle. Eurozone inflation jumped to 2.5% in March, above target.
The STOXX 600 closed out March with a -7.99% monthly decline — its worst month since mid-2022.
Panic, in other words. The expensive kind.
What I actually did
You might remember my post from March 23rd, where I took profits on Repsol, E.ON, Enel, and HSBC — gains of +35% to +71%. I wasn’t clairvoyant. The war started four days earlier. I just had targets, and the targets got hit.
Now I’m sitting on cash, watching the market hand me a menu.
What I’m buying
Let me be precise.
1. European defense — buying the March dip
Here’s the irony: the sector most structurally benefiting from European rearmament (€500 billion German infrastructure/defense program, NATO spending commitments) dropped 11% in March because of the Iran war. Why? Panic correlation. When everything sells off, defense stocks go with it, even though their order books just got bigger.
Rheinmetall, Leonardo, Thales. These companies have multi-year government contracts that don’t evaporate because oil spiked. The structural thesis — European sovereign rearmament — is intact. The price is lower than it was three weeks ago. That’s the window.
2. Renewables/utilities — the Iran war is their best advertisement
The European Commission said it clearly: “The answer is not new dependencies, but faster electrification.” The war has made energy security a political emergency, not just a climate policy.
Iberdrola, Enel (again, at better prices), Vestas. Wind and solar capacity that doesn’t depend on the Strait of Hormuz is now geopolitically strategic. Governments will accelerate permits and subsidies. These companies will collect the checks.
3. European banks — cheap and getting cheaper
UniCredit and BNP dropped 2.5% last Thursday on war fears. They’re now trading below where they were before the German fiscal stimulus announcement. At ~9x P/E, with buyback programs running and dividend yields above 6%, you’re being offered quality at fear prices.
The ECB pausing cuts — which sounds bad — actually keeps their net interest margins higher for longer. They make more money per loan. The “bad news” is actually neutral-to-good for bank earnings.
What I’m not touching
Traditional energy re-entry at $100+ oil: it’s already priced for the war. The asymmetry is gone.
Anything with heavy China exposure: too many second-order risks.
The meta-point
Every major geopolitical disruption in the past 50 years has resolved, one way or another. The market recovers. What changes permanently is the structural landscape after it.
After 1973: renewables got funded for 50 years.
After Ukraine: European defense got funded.
After Iran 2026: energy independence becomes existential for Europe.
I’m not buying panic. I’m buying the structural shift that the panic is funding.
If you’re copying my portfolio on eToro — this is the reasoning behind the moves you’ll see in the next few weeks.
(Not financial advice. Do your own research. I’m just thinking out loud, expensively.)
📍 eToro: etoro.com/people/ciprianb80
Ink And Reason 